Awards season is about to officially start on January 7th! Below are our Golden Globes 2024 predictions: who will, could, and should win?
The Golden Globes have gotten a bad reputation in the last few years. There are plenty of articles analyzing how the Hollywood Foreign Press Association has been under the influence of the studios with the highest campaigning budgets and their serious diversity issues. Luckily, ahead of the 2024 Golden Globes, the HFPA did the right thing and expanded their voting body, both making it harder for studios to buy votes and diversifying their organization as a whole. In doing so, this year’s Nominations are easily the best bunch we have seen in years, and one of the coolest sets of nominees I’ve seen from any group this year. But who will, could, and should win? It’s time to start making predictions.
Since there has been such a big change to the HFPA, this also makes the 2024 Golden Globes an extremely hard show to predict. Usually, if you go for the biggest celebrity, or what seems to be the populist pick, you can be pretty safe. However, this year the nominations seem a lot more similar to critics’ picks. It’s hard to predict based on what they have done in the past, or what I think has the strongest chance considering the more diverse voting body. Regardless of what wins, this will for sure be one hell of a start for these film’s journey for Academy Awards.
BEST MOTION PICTURE: DRAMA
At this stage in the awards race, Oppenheimer is the biggest front runner we have to win the Oscar in March. Out of all the films nominated, it has stayed at the front of the awards conversation with little to no frontrunner fatigue, like The Fabelmans or The Power of the Dog experienced in previous years. If Oppenheimer wins at the 2024 Golden Globes, it’s one giant step in the right direction for the film to be the one that wins it all.
- Will Win: Oppenheimer
- Could Win: Killers of the Flower Moon
- Should Win: Anatomy of a Fall
- Should’ve Been Nominated: The Iron Claw
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE: DRAMA
- Lily Gladstone — Killers of the Flower Moon
- Carey Mulligan – Maestro
- Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall
- Annette Bening — Nyad
- Greta Lee — Past Lives
- Cailee Spaeny — Priscilla
Similarly to Best Motion Picture Drama, when the winner is crowned, we will officially know who the front runner for Best Actress will be. Lily Gladstone has been a critics’ favorite, and she has a great narrative as someone who can make history as the first Indigenous person to win a lead acting award. Sandra Hüller gives an absolute masterclass performance in Anatomy of a Fall, and when this film initially premiered, I couldn’t see a way for her to lose. In a less strong year, Carey Mulligan would be sweeping every award for Maestro, since her role as Felicia Montealegre is the most “awards bait-like” performance, not to mention that it is easily a career-best role. Ultimately, Lily Gladstone seems like she has the best shot to win, but I wouldn’t be surprised if any of these three got the trophy.
- Will Win: Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon
- Could Win: Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall
- Should Win: Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall
- Should’ve Been Nominated: Teyana Taylor – A Thousand and One
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE: DRAMA
- Bradley Cooper — Maestro
- Cillian Murphy — Oppenheimer
- Leonardo DiCaprio — Killers of the Flower Moon
- Colman Domingo — Rustin
- Andrew Scott — All of Us Strangers
- Barry Keoghan — Saltburn
Ever since Maestro was announced as a 2023 release, I’ve had Bradley Cooper winning Best Actor for all award shows. I will never get over the fact that he lost Best Actor for A Star is Born back in 2019, and while I don’t believe his role as Leonard Bernstein is superior, similarly to Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody, it is begging for awards recognition. Cooper’s main competition is Cillian Murphy for Oppenheimer, but that win relies on the strength of that film overall. I don’t think we’re at a point that Oppenheimer will sweep enough categories to include this one just yet.
- Will Win: Bradley Cooper — Maestro
- Could Win: Cillian Murphy — Oppenheimer
- Should Win: Bradley Cooper — Maestro
- Should’ve Been Nominated: Zac Efron – The Iron Claw
BEST MOTION PICTURE: MUSICAL OR COMEDY
This is perhaps one of the easiest categories to predict, because Barbie should have almost no trouble getting the trophy here. If you were to ask me a few weeks ago, I would have maybe predicted Poor Things instead, but at this point that seems more probable in another category. Barbie is understood as an across the board masterpiece, and there isn’t a better place to award a film with these types of remarks than in Best Picture. Barbie is just starting to be seriously considered as a potential winner for Best Picture at the Oscars, so if it wins at the Golden Globes, we might have a real threat to Oppenheimer after all.
- Will Win: Barbie
- Could Win: Poor Things
- Should Win: Poor Things
- Should’ve Been Nominated: Bottoms
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE: MUSICAL OR COMEDY
- Fantasia Barrino – The Color Purple
- Jennifer Lawrence – No Hard Feelings
- Natalie Portman – May December
- Alma Pöysti – Fallen Leaves
- Margot Robbie – Barbie
- Emma Stone – Poor Things
While I believe Barbie is the stronger film overall awards wise, I don’t know how anyone could watch Poor Things and not give Emma Stone every award possible, including a Golden Globe. Her performance is not only my favorite of the year, but plenty of critics’ as well, and out of all the nominees, she is the only one that I think will make the final 5 come Oscar Nomination morning. Hopefully her win here can start a streak that will take her all the way to March.
- Will Win: Emma Stone – Poor Things
- Could Win: Fantasia Barrino – The Color Purple
- Should Win: Emma Stone – Poor Things
- Should’ve Been Nominated: Ayo Edebiri – Bottoms
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE: MUSICAL OR COMEDY
- Nicolas Cage — Dream Scenario
- Timothée Chalamet — Wonka
- Matt Damon — Air
- Paul Giamatti — The Holdovers
- Joaquin Phoenix — Beau Is Afraid
- Jeffrey Wright — American Fiction
In the Awards predictions sphere, a lot of people claim that everyone is doubting American Fiction as a serious awards contender. As someone who doesn’t think American Fiction will end up winning anything at the Oscars, I am looking to this category to see if I can be proven wrong. The Holdovers was supposed to be nominated for Best Director and Best Screenplay but missed here on nomination morning. These signs of weakness would mean that Jeffrey Wright should have no issue winning this award. My only potential problem with this prediction is that The Holdovers still has more nominations overall, with Best Supporting Actress, and Paul Giamatti is beloved across Hollywood. I don’t think that is enough to cost Jeffery Wright his win, but only time will tell.
- Will Win: Jeffrey Wright — American Fiction
- Could Win: Paul Giamatti — The Holdovers
- Should Win: Paul Giamatti — The Holdovers
- Should’ve Been Nominated: Christopher Abbott – Sanctuary
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE
- Emily Blunt — Oppenheimer
- Danielle Brooks — The Color Purple
- Jodie Foster — Nyad
- Julianne Moore — May December
- Rosamund Pike — Saltburn
- Da’Vine Joy Randolph — The Holdovers
At this point in the Awards race, there is no clear front runner for this category. The critics favorite is Da’Vine Joy Randolph, but that doesn’t necessarily mean she will sweep the televised awards. It is always the safest bet to go with the critics pick, since there isn’t any evidence for anyone else to win yet. If someone were to start picking up awards, my money is on Danielle Brooks who gives a classic scene stealing performance in the years’ biggest musical, similar to Ariana DeBose in West Side Story.
- Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph — The Holdovers
- Could Win: Danielle Brooks — The Color Purple
- Should Win: Rosamund Pike — Saltburn
- Should’ve Been Nominated: Rachel McAdams – Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE
- Willem Dafoe — Poor Things
- Robert DeNiro — Killers of the Flower Moon
- Robert Downey Jr. — Oppenheimer
- Ryan Gosling — Barbie
- Charles Melton — May December
- Mark Ruffalo — Poor Things
A lot of awards prognosticators are currently talking about the Barbenheimer showdown for Best Picture, but this race truly starts with this category with both Robert Downey Jr and Ryan Gosling. Both of these actors have a similar narrative given they both give scene stealing performances and have not won Academy Awards in their long careers, but I feel that Downey Jr has a little more industry respect after the MCU which would give him the edge at the 2024 Golden Globes. Regardless of who wins, I think either of their speeches would be hilarious and memorable, making other award’s bodies want to vote for them as well.
- Will Win: Robert Downey Jr. — Oppenheimer
- Could Win: Ryan Gosling — Barbie
- Should Win: Charles Melton — May December
- Should’ve Been Nominated: John Magaro – Past Lives
BEST SCREENPLAY: MOTION PICTURE
- Barbie — Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach
- Poor Things — Tony McNamara
- Oppenheimer — Christopher Nolan
- Killers of the Flower Moon — Eric Roth and Martin Scorsese
- Past Lives — Celine Song
- Anatomy of a Fall — Justine Triet and Arthur Harari
Similarly to how Oppenheimer is a director’s film above all else, Barbie is a writer’s film in the same vein. Both Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach have been in the awards conversation long enough where people feel that they are deserving of this achievement during this part of their career. Oppenheimer might have a chance given that it is a rare screenplay written in the 1st person, but I really believe that Barbie will sweep this category.
- Will Win: Barbie — Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach
- Could Win: Oppenheimer — Christopher Nolan
- Should Win: Past Lives — Celine Song
- Should’ve Been Nominated: Samy Burch – May December
BEST DIRECTOR: MOTION PICTURE
- Bradley Cooper — Maestro
- Greta Gerwig — Barbie
- Yorgos Lanthimos — Poor Things
- Christopher Nolan — Oppenheimer
- Martin Scorsese — Killers of the Flower Moon
- Celine Song — Past Lives
There seems to be both a critical and industry consensus that it is Christopher Nolan’s time to finally get his flowers as a director. Oppenheimer is a directorial achievement above all else, and if the film were to win only one award, I’m fully confident this would be it. The Golden Globes do like giving this award to more “classic” directors such as Steven Spielberg last year, so they could go for Scorsese, but Nolan seems undeniable at his point.
- Will Win: Christopher Nolan — Oppenheimer
- Could Win: Martin Scorsese — Killers of the Flower Moon
- Should Win: Christopher Nolan — Oppenheimer
- Should’ve Been Nominated: Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest
BEST MOTION PICTURE: NON-ENGLISH LANGUAGE
- Anatomy of a Fall — France
- Fallen Leaves — Finland
- Io Capitano — Italy
- Past Lives — United States
- Society of the Snow — Spain
- The Zone of Interest — United Kingdom
Non-English Language Film is typically one of the hardest categories to predict mainly because this voting body has different rules than The Academy, allowing films such as Past Lives to be nominated. Usually if there is a film that has a Best Picture nomination along with Best Director and Best Screenplay, it would be a no brainer to predict it to win that category. However, since many people don’t consider Past Lives a Non-English Language feature, I’m worried that it won’t rack up enough votes to win. Anatomy of a Fall is the runner up for me since it has the second most nominations after Past Lives, but I wouldn’t be surprised if The Zone of Interest wins either. It really is anyone’s game here.
- Will Win: Past Lives
- Could Win: Anatomy of a Fall
- Should Win: Anatomy of a Fall
- Should’ve Been Nominated: The Boy and the Heron
BEST MOTION PICTURE: ANIMATED
- The Boy and the Heron
- Elemental
- Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
- The Super Mario Bros. Movie
- Suzume
- Wish
While Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse is the only film here to generate real Best Picture buzz, I believe that The Boy and the Heron will win at this awards show. If we look at the nominations overall, this current voting body is very friendly to foreign films. Even in this category, they nominated Suzume over widely predicted films such as Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem. This passion is what drives me to predict The Boy and the Heron, even if the win doesn’t repeat elsewhere.
- Will Win: The Boy and the Heron
- Could Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
- Should Win: The Boy and the Heron
- Should’ve Been Nominated: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: MOTION PICTURE
- Ludwig Göransson — Oppenheimer
- Jerskin Fendrix — Poor Things
- Robbie Robertson — Killers of the Flower Moon
- Mica Levi — The Zone of Interest
- Daniel Pemberton — Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
- Joe Hisaishi — The Boy and the Heron
Ludwig Göransson’s work for Oppenheimer is easily one of the most memorable scores of the year, and based on the strength that this film has, it should have no problem winning here. Robbie Robertson might have a chance here, since this would be a great opportunity to give a posthumous award, but there hasn’t been a lot of evidence of that happening with the critics awards, so Göransson is the safest bet.
- Will Win: Ludwig Göransson — Oppenheimer
- Could Win: Robbie Robertson — Killers of the Flower Moon
- Should Win: Ludwig Göransson — Oppenheimer
- Should’ve Been Nominated: Nicholas Britell – Carmen
BEST ORIGINAL SONG: MOTION PICTURE
- “What Was I Made For?” by Billie Eilish and Finneas – Barbie
- “Dance the Night” by Caroline Ailin, Dua Lipa, Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt – Barbie
- “Addicted to Romance” by Bruce Springsteen and Patti Scialfa – She Came to Me
- “Peaches” by Jack Black, Aaron Horvath, Michael Jelenic, Eric Osmond, and John Spiker – The Super Mario Bros. Movie
- “I’m Just Ken” by Mark Ronson, Andrew Wyatt – Barbie
- “Road to Freedom” by Lenny Kravitz – Rustin
Original Song is the easiest category to predict at the Golden Globes this year. There has been no other song that has the mainstream strength besides “What Was I Made For?,” and I think it’s plenty deserving. This should be the start of Billie Eilish and Finneas’ sweep which will earn them their second Oscar come March.
- Will Win: “What Was I Made For?” by Billie Eilish and Finneas – Barbie
- Could Win: Nothing!
- Should Win: “What Was I Made For?” by Billie Eilish and Finneas – Barbie
- Should’ve Been Nominated: “Can’t Catch Me Now” by Olivia Rodrigo – The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes
The 80th Annual Golden Globe Awards will be held on Sunday, January 7, 2024 at at 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT, and streamed live on Paramount+ for Showtime subscribers. Paramount+ Essential subscribers will be able to watch the Awards the day after the special airs. Watch the 2024 Golden Globes on Paramount+ and read the rest of our Awards & Events coverage!
