On January 5th, the 2025 Golden Globes kick off the beginning of awards season. Below are our predictions for who will, could, and should win!
The 2025 Golden Globes might be the most unpredictable awards show this season. This year, it feels like so many of the major categories are unpredictable, since the critics groups have not provided a strong consensus behind a certain film or performance. While this makes for exciting watching on January 5th, our job as award show predictors gets a lot more difficult. Since the Hollywood Foreign Press Association has more than doubled their size in the last few years, their tendencies have leaned more indie, so we might be seeing support for movies like The Brutalist and Anora over Wicked and Dune: Part Two.
However, since it has only been a year since this expansion and the HFPA has added even more members this year, we are still getting to know what types of movies they gravitate to. For the 2025 Golden Globes, who will, could, and should win? It’s time to start making predictions for the official start of awards season!
Best Motion Picture – Drama
- The Brutalist
- A Complete Unknown
- Conclave
- Dune: Part Two
- Nickel Boys
- September 5
There are two main front runners in the Drama category for the 2025 Golden Globes: The Brutalist and Conclave. While I believe that Conclave has the better chance of winning Best Picture, the HFPA often gives movies at least one other award if they are winning this category. Out of these two, The Brutalist has a lot stronger of a chance to do so. Even though I don’t think this will be the start of a sweep like Oppenheimer, this will be a key moment in this year’s award season to see what sustains frontrunner status.
- Will Win: The Brutalist
- Could Win: Conclave
- Should Win: The Brutalist
- Should’ve Been Nominated: Sing Sing
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
- Pamela Anderson — The Last Showgirl
- Angelina Jolie — Maria
- Nicole Kidman — Babygirl
- Tilda Swinton — The Room Next Door
- Fernanda Torres — I’m Still Here
- Kate Winslet — Lee
This is one of the few categories where I can see a clear frontrunner. For a lot of the time, when a known actor is playing an iconic figure, they are a shoe-in to win. Angelina Jolie has a fantastic comeback narrative and this can be the first step in her awards season journey. Her performance in Maria is extraordinary and I think the HFPA will seize the opportunity to reward her in this way. Fernanda Torres has a chance to take the gold here, especially with the increasingly international voting body, but Maria is the more awards friendly film and I think voters will gravitate to Jolie more.
- Will Win: Angelina Jolie — Maria
- Could Win: Fernanda Torres — I’m Still Here
- Should Win: Nicole Kidman — Babygirl
- Should’ve Been Nominated: Willa Fitzgereld – Strange Darling
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
- Adrien Brody — The Brutalist
- Timothée Chalamet — A Complete Unknown
- Daniel Craig — Queer
- Colman Domingo — Sing Sing
- Ralph Fiennes — Conclave
- Sebastian Stan — The Apprentice
For the 2025 Golden Globes, Drama Actor is closely linked with Drama Picture. If The Brutalist wins, Adrien Brody will come along with it. However, if another movie such as Conclave wins, Timothée Chalamet has an extremely strong chance of winning instead. It all depends on the strength of The Brutalist. Typically, I would use the same logic as I did for Jolie in Maria, but Brody is in nearly every scene of the over three and a half hour epic, and I don’t think any voting body this season will be able to reward the film without rewarding the leading man.
- Will Win: Adrien Brody — The Brutalist
- Could Win: Timothée Chalamet — A Complete Unknown
- Should Win: Colman Domingo — Sing Sing
- Should’ve Been Nominated: Andrew Garfeild – We Live in Time
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
- Anora
- Challengers
- Emilia Pérez
- A Real Pain
- The Substance
- Wicked
Since I’ve been following the Golden Globes, I haven’t seen a Musical/Comedy category this strong. There are three movies that I could see winning in January. Anora is the frontrunner because it is currently leading in regional critic awards and it has a strong chance of winning a few other awards that night. However, both Emilia Pérez and Wicked have extremely strong cases to win as well. Emilia Pérez has the most nominations out of any movies of the night, which doesn’t necessarily mean it will win, but it does show strong support from the HFPA. More than any of the movies in this category, Wicked captured the cultural zeitgeist. Since this is the first major awards show since its release, it would make sense if it took the picture win here. Taking all of these reasons into account, Anora makes the most sense to win, but the Globes have surprised before.
- Will Win: Anora
- Could Win: Emilia Pérez
- Should Win: Challengers
- Should’ve Been Nominated: Hit Man
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
- Amy Adams — Nightbitch
- Cynthia Erivo — Wicked
- Karla Sofía Gascón — Emilia Pérez
- Mikey Madison — Anora
- Demi Moore — The Substance
- Zendaya — Challengers
Even if Anora doesn’t end up taking the Comedy/Musical Film globe, I still think she is taking this best actress spot. From the very first promotions of this movie, Madison has been centered as putting her all into this performance, and Ani/Anora is one of the most memorable film characters we have seen in years. Even with strong contenders like Erivo and Gascón, there is not much evidence to sway me away from a performance as acclaimed as this one. Even if she is not my personal favorite in this category, Mikey Madison more than deserves all the flowers she has gotten and will continue to get this awards season.
- Will Win: Mikey Madison — Anora
- Could Win: Karla Sofía Gascón — Emilia Pérez
- Should Win: Demi Moore — The Substance
- Should’ve Been Nominated: June Squibb – Thelma
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
- Jesse Eisenberg — A Real Pain
- Hugh Grant — Heretic
- Gabriel LaBelle — Saturday Night
- Jesse Plemons — Kinds of Kindness
- Glen Powell — Hit Man
- Sebastian Stan — A Different Man
Comedy/Musical Actor is a pretty difficult category to predict this year. Out of the nominees, there doesn’t seem to be a clear front-runner. Typically, I would go for Jesse Eisenberg, since his movie is the only one that made it into Best Picture, but his performance is not very comedic, and I think the HFPA will go for something a little more showy. It doesn’t get much showier than Glen Powell this year, and he has been on a steady career rise within the last few years, so this would be the perfect time to reward him. Hugh Grant also has a chance here, especially since he also received a Critics Choice nomination for Best Actor, but I haven’t felt a lot of passion around him yet. This category might be a toss up, but my money is on Powell to take the gold.
- Will Win: Glen Powell — Hit Man
- Could Win: Hugh Grant — Heretic
- Should Win: Jesse Eisenberg — A Real Pain
- Should’ve Been Nominated: Izaac Wang – Dìdi
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture
- Selena Gomez — Emilia Pérez
- Ariana Grande — Wicked
- Felicity Jones — The Brutalist
- Margaret Qualley — The Substance
- Isabella Rossellini — Conclave
- Zoe Saldaña — Emilia Pérez
Supporting Actress, as always, is one of the most exciting categories of the night. As of now, it seems like Zoe Saldaña and Ariana Grande are neck and neck to win, and I think they will trade awards depending on the voting body all season. Since I think Emilia Pérez is the stronger film overall according to the HFPA, I’ll give her the edge here, but not by much. However, given Grande’s strong critical support, if she wins here, watch out for a sweep during the rest of awards season.
- Will Win: Zoe Saldaña — Emilia Pérez
- Could Win: Ariana Grande — Wicked
- Should Win: Zoe Saldaña — Emilia Pérez
- Should’ve Been Nominated: Joan Chen – Dìdi
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture
- Yura Borisov — Anora
- Kieran Culkin — A Real Pain
- Edward Norton — A Complete Unknown
- Guy Pearce — The Brutalist
- Jeremy Strong — The Apprentice
- Denzel Washington — Gladiator II
Similarly to Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor is another neck and neck race between Kieran Culkin and Guy Pearce. Culkin is on a bit of a hot streak with Succession just ending, and his performance in A Real Pain is one of the best of the year according to many critics and awards voters. However, Pearce has a strong career narrative, and this is the first time that he’s had an opportunity to be rewarded on this scale. If The Brutalist is the real deal, I could see Pearce winning by association, but there isn’t any evidence that the film is that strong in the awards winning conversation yet.
- Will Win: Kieran Culkin — A Real Pain
- Could Win: Guy Pearce — The Brutalist
- Should Win: Kieran Culkin — A Real Pain
- Should’ve Been Nominated: Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing
Best Screenplay – Motion Picture
- Jacques Audiard — Emilia Pérez
- Sean Baker — Anora
- Brady Corbet & Mona Fastvold — The Brutalist
- Jesse Eisenberg — A Real Pain
- Coralie Fargeat — The Substance
- Peter Straughan — Conclave
Since Best Screenplay is not divided into original and adapted, it is hard to decide which film will win here. Sean Baker has the best chance, since Anora is the strongest movie overall, but Peter Straughan is the front runner for the adapted race, so it also wouldn’t be surprising if he won here too. I would put my money on Baker, though, especially since his films have been more in the awards conversation in previous years.
- Will Win: Sean Baker — Anora
- Could Win: Peter Straughan — Conclave
- Should Win: Jesse Eisenberg — A Real Pain
- Should’ve Been Nominated: Glen Powell & Richard Linklater – Hit Man
Best Director – Motion Picture
- Jacques Audiard — Emilia Pérez
- Sean Baker — Anora
- Edward Berger — Conclave
- Brady Corbet — The Brutalist
- Coralie Fargeat — The Substance
- Payal Kapadia — All We Imagine as Light
Best Director might be the first true indication of which movie is the frontrunner for best picture since this isn’t split by Drama and Comedy/Musical. Right now, Corbet seems like the simple choice, due to the ambition of The Brutalist, but if anyone else wins, it would prove that another film is dominating the awards conversation. If the HFPA wanted to award the most ambitious work, we would be seeing Coralie Fargeat come January, but I think the nomination is the award for her this time around.
- Will Win: Brady Corbet — The Brutalist
- Could Win: Jacques Audiard — Emilia Pérez
- Should Win: Coralie Fargeat — The Substance
- Should’ve Been Nominated: Luca Guadagnino — Challengers
Best Motion Picture – Animated
- Flow
- Inside Out 2
- Memoir of a Snail
- Moana 2
- Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
- The Wild Robot
Animated Motion Picture could be one of the easiest categories to predict. My general rule for this category is if one of the films is nominated in something else besides Animated Feature, it will most likely win. If we are not including Cinematic and Box Office Achievement, The Wild Robot is the only movie to check this box. Flow has been the critics pick thus far, so there is a slight chance it could win, especially with the trends of the expanded HFPA, but I think The Wild Robot will deservedly be the sweeper of all major awards this year.
- Will Win: The Wild Robot
- Could Win: Flow
- Should Win: The Wild Robot
- Should’ve Been Nominated: Orion and the Dark
Best Motion Picture – Non-English Language
- All We Imagine as Light – Usa / France / India
- Emilia Pérez – France
- The Girl With the Needle – Poland / Sweden / Denmark
- I’m Still Here – Brazil
- The Seed of the Sacred Fig – Usa / Germany
- Vermiglio – Italy
Similarly to Animated Feature, for Non-English Language Motion Picture it is best practice to go with the film that has the most nominations overall. I truly don’t see a world where Emilia Pérez doesn’t win here. If I were to find a potential upset, it would be All We Imagine as Light because of the Best Director nomination, but that would easily be the biggest shock of the night.
- Will Win: Emilia Pérez
- Could Win: All We Imagine as Light
- Should Win: All We Imagine as Light
- Should’ve Been Nominated: Evil Does Not Exist
Best Original Score – Motion Picture
- Volker Bertelmann — Conclave
- Daniel Blumberg — The Brutalist
- Kris Bowers — The Wild Robot
- Clément Ducol & Camille — Emilia Pérez
- Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross — Challengers
- Hans Zimmer — Dune: Part Two
Daniel Blumberg’s score is part of the reason why The Brutalist is such a memorable experience, and I think the HFPA will reward it accordingly. It would be an absolute dream come true to see Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross win for Challengers, but I don’t think voters will go for it, since that film isn’t a strong contender for any other awards. The only other real competition Blumberg has would be for Volker Bertelmann’s Conclave score, but even from the small clips of The Brutalist’s music from the trailer, it just felt like a score that would be showered in awards, and I think that will start here.
- Will Win: Daniel Blumberg — The Brutalist
- Could Win: Volker Bertelmann — Conclave
- Should Win: Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross — Challengers
- Should’ve Been Nominated: Bryce Dessner – Sing Sing
Best Original Song – Motion Picture
- “Beautiful That Way” – The Last Showgirl; Music & Lyrics By: Andrew Wyatt, Miley Cyrus & Lykke Zachrisson
- “Compress / Repress” – Challengers; Music & Lyrics By: Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross & Luca Guadagnino
- “El Mal” – Emilia Pérez; Music & Lyrics By: Clément Ducol, Camille & Jacques Audiard
- “Forbidden Road” – Better Man; Music & Lyrics By: Robbie Williams, Freddy Wexler & Sacha Skarbek
- “Kiss The Sky” – The Wild Robot; Music & Lyrics By: Delacey, Jordan K. Johnson, Stefan Johnson, Maren Morris, Michael Pollack & Ali Tamposi
- “Mi Camino” – Emilia Pérez; Music & Lyrics By: Clément Ducol & Camille
Original songs are perhaps the weakest category this year. None of the songs have been able to reach dominant cultural conversation like in previous years, but “Mi Camino” does have Selena Gomez singing it, which would make it the most popular out of the options, especially since Emilia Pérez has so many nominations. I don’t see how any other song would win, but with other pop stars such as Maren Morris and Miley Cryrus being songwriters on other songs, there is always a possibility for an upset.
- Will Win: “Mi Camino” – Emilia Pérez
- Could Win: “Kiss The Sky” – The Wild Robot
- Should Win: “El Mal” – Emilia Pérez
- Should’ve Been Nominated: “Will & Harper Go West” – Will & Harper
Cinematic and Box Office Achievement
- Alien: Romulus
- Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
- Deadpool & Wolverine
- Gladiator II
- Inside Out 2
- Twisters
- Wicked
- The Wild Robot
Even though the 2025 Golden Globes will be the second time we have this category, I think one can pick up on the types of movies the HFPA will go for. Wicked seems like the clear choice here because it has the prestige plus the soaring box office numbers. Out of the options here, there isn’t any other film that has been nearly as successful on both fronts. Inside Out 2 has the highest box office of the year, so there could be a chance the voters use that as the only qualification, but I don’t think that is very likely.
- Will Win: Wicked
- Could Win: Inside Out 2
- Should Win: The Wild Robot
- Should’ve Been Nominated: Dune: Part Two
The 81st Annual Golden Globe Awards will be held on Sunday, January 5, 2025 at at 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT, and streamed live on Paramount+ for Showtime subscribers. Paramount+ Essential subscribers will also be able to watch the Awards the day after the special airs.
